ANÁLISIS DE TENDENCIAS DE PRECIPITACIONES ANUALES EN LA CUENCA HIDROGRÁFICA DEL RÍO JUBONES, ECUADOR MEDIANTE ESTADÍSTICA NO PARAMÉTRICA

Santiago Bonilla-Cáceres; Susana Arciniegas-Ortega

doi:10.47187/perf.v1i33.328

Authors

Santiago Bonilla-Cáceres Consultora Analítica Green Dataframe Environmental, Quito, Ecuador; Universidad Central del Ecuador, Grupo de Investigación en Geotecnologías Aplicadas a las Ciencias Ambientales, Quito, Ecuador
Susana Arciniegas-Ortega Universidad Central del Ecuador, Facultad de Ingeniería en Geología, Minas, Petróleos y Ambiental, Carrera de Ingeniería Ambiental, Quito, Ecuador; Universidad Central del Ecuador, Grupo de Investigación en Geotecnologías Aplicadas a las Ciencias Ambientales, Quito, Ecuador

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.47187/perf.v1i33.328

Keywords:

precipitation, statistic, weather, meteorology, Mann-Kendall, river

Abstract

Ecuador is characterized by a remarkable climatic diversity, influenced by factors such as latitude, orography and the Pacific Ocean. This study analyzed the trend of cumulative annual precipitation in the Jubones River basin over a 34-year period (1990-2023) using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. Precipitation data were obtained from five INAMHI meteorological stations and supplemented with satellite information from Giovanni Earth Data. The results showed significant trends at several stations, reflected in τ, S and p-value values, revealing patterns of both increasing (positive trends) and decreasing (negative trends) precipitation. Station M0040 showed a negative trend, while stations M0481, M0419 and M0420 showed positive trends. Only station M0422 did not show a significant trend, indicating random and independent data. These findings suggest that precipitation in the Jubones River basin is influenced by regional climatic factors, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Identifying these trends is crucial for anticipating changes in water availability, improving agricultural planning, and managing the erosive potential of precipitation in the region.

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